Before a roundup we always look at the numbers on the range and the numbers BLM is planning to take. We discuss the absurdly low numbers they plan to leave on the range.

This look at the next roundups is not different except, the numbers have gotten so small in all but just a handful of areas in the U.S., that we are now going to look at statewide numbers as these roundups begin.

Both of these operations will begin in just 2 days. Our teams will be onsite. 

Piceance, CO

Up next on the roundup schedule are Piceance/East Douglas in Colorado and Bible Springs in Utah. Wild Horse Education will have team members onsite at both operations documenting and reporting back to you. Our team will also be working in maintaining our data-base that we use to push for real enforceable welfare rules. You can learn more about how nothing can be called “humane” without enforceable welfare standards and how you can take action HERE. 

You can support this vital work by clicking HERE. 

Bible Springs, UT

Before any summer roundup concerns regarding heat, air quality, foals, pregnant mares, and foaling season stress in stallions is one of the first things the public thinks of. Bit before we talk about that, we want to talk about the target numbers and the objectives.

The urgency to gain real management planning that transparently discloses how numbers allowed on the range (called AML), boundary lines were set, and plans to preserve habitat for wild horses and burros is a subject that gets lost under the big corporate push to “get to AML” and “aggressive increase in fertility control.” Those things are the actual problem advocacy faces today and represent a “solution” only if you believe the baseline set in agreements, not data, back in the 1980s. A baseline that supports a goal to push herds down below the number purportedly in the range in 1971 when Congress declared them “fast disappearing” and keep them at those low numbers with mashups of fertility control from vaccines to spaying. (Yes, spaying is back in planning and BLM is trying to slip it into new gather plans.)

Please read “Bottom Line: AML” to learn how the new construct of “low AML” created a national target goal that asserts that under 15,000 wild horses is the “appropriate” number, less than were found when the 1971 Act passed. 

Piceance roundup, July 2022

Piceance/East Douglas:

BLM plans: “1,025 horses planned for gather, about 1,011 horses will be removed from the range, and 14 will be returned to the Piceance-East Douglas HMA. Ten of the returned horses will receive fertility control treatment to help slow future population growth.” This removal number represents only Piceance/East Douglas and not the “zero out” target for West Douglas that is the next roundup on the schedule listed distinctly.

The Piceance/East Douglas Herd Management Area (HMA) is about 190,130 acres and BLM says only 135-235 wild horses can occupy the area. The target of the operation is the low AML of 135.

The West Douglas Herd Area is 127,649 acres (an HA is an are designated for wild horse use but not managed setting an AML of 0). There is another HA that BLM never actually mentions by name in this cluster, North Piceance, that comprises 118,405 acres.

The estimated population BLM reported to Congress in their annual 2026 report (March): North Piceance, 58. West Douglas, 101. Piceance, 814. Those numbers total 973. Read our breakdown addressing the BLM Population Statistics report HERE.

BLM estimates the population in August of 2026 as 1,145 just in Piceance-East Douglas. This is nearly a 30% increase from the number reported to Congress just a few months ago, 

The stated target number is based on additional “modeling padding.” The padding assumes a foaling rate and a survival rate of those foals. It is clear the objective is to leave low AML in the entire area.

However, BLM fails to include an error rate they recognize deep in their paperwork, but never use in practice. BLM recognizes a 22% error rate… downward. So the BLM estimate actually represents as the baseline for this roundup is absurdly high. At Saylor Creek, the only roundup done this year with an actual pre-operation census, the estimated target number was 24% higher than the census data demonstrated. (We reflect this error rate in the chart further down the page.)

BLM did not do a pre-operation census. BLM does not plan to do a post-operation census to ensure they did not remove lower than the legal limit

BLM is limiting public observation to only 3 days each week claiming they do not have the personnel to facilitate observation. This is not a valid restriction on First Amendment Rights. (Our team is addressing this issue).

Are they limiting public access because this operation will look and feel like a “zero out” where aggressive tactics are used to remove all the horses from an area? If you look at the inconsistency in BLM numbers, BLM should expect very little public trust heightening the need for public oversight.

Colorado:

In the chart below you can see the statewide estimates, the 22% error rate, and the actual low AML target. 

The entire state of Colorado manages about 24 million acres of public lands. Only about 404,000 acres in the entire state is designated wild horse habitat. That habitat is overrun with livestock and oil and gas. 

After the 2026 roundups at Piceance-East Douglas, West Douglas and the upcoming Sand Wash Basin, Colorado will likely have fewer than 600 wild horses (and possibly fewer than 400) in the entire state.

As advocates, we have to say this: If you are a supporter of the Path Forward, you have reached your mark in Colorado. There are no large herds left in the state so there will be no large roundups and now your increase in the use of fertility control can happen. This agreement was first called Ten Years to AML. We are in the 7th year of this plan being fully funded by Congress. In Colorado and Idaho (after Saylor Creek) you hit you mark this year.

This chart does not include burros. This chart does not include the additional modeling BLM added for foals born after March.

Looking at the chart keep in mind that Nevada has more than half of the actively managed HMAs in the country and more wild horses than all other states combined on nearly 16 million acres of public lands. That might seem like a lot, but Nevada manages livestock on 43 million acres. At any date on the calendar BLM has about 167,000 cow/calf pairs out on public lands in Nevada (that does not include sheep).  Colorado has only 4 HMAs in the state on 404,000 acres. Idaho has more HMAs than Colorado at 6, on almost the same acreage, but allows fewer wild horses.Utah.

Bible Springs. The Bible Springs Complex is approximately 223,000 acres and is comprised of 3 Herd Management Areas: Bible Springs, Four Mile and Tilly Creek; as well as the Blawn Wash herd area.

The 2026 Population Statistics Report estimated Bible Springs at 205 wild horses, Four Mile at 317, Tilly Creek at 135 and the Blawn Wash HA at 304. The March 2026 estimate for the entire area of over 200,000 acres is 961 wild horses.

BLM plans to remove 800 wild horses from the administrative construct of “complex.” Bible Springs Complex areas in Utah is 80–170 combined, with individual breakdowns of 30–60 for Bible Springs, 30-60, for Four Mile, 20–50 for Tilly Creek, and Blawn Wash HA is 0. All if these HMAS are below the basic genetic diversity standard as recommended by BLM’s own geneticist.

The target is to leave mid AML of around 120. (This does not take into account the 22% error rate noted in the section on Colorado).

Confusion. The next roundup on the schedule in Utah is the Confusion HMA. BLM plans to remove 360.

The estimated population reported to Congress in March was 402 within the nearly 300,00 acre HMA. The number BLM says can live in the area (AML) is 70-115 (below basic genetic diversity as recommended by BLM’s own geneticist).

These two operations will remove over 1,100 wild horses from the Utah total.

Of the 19 HMAs managed by Utah, only 6 have estimated populations over 300 wild horses; 2 of them are listed above. (It needs to be noted that 2 of the Utah HMAs are managed as part of the Eagle Complex of Nevada that just closed comments on a new plan last week). If we remove those two off the Utah list, Utah only has HMAs they assert are over AML where we are talking about very few horses (like Frisco: BLM says only 30-50 horses can live there and the estimate there are 96.. so OMG… they are more than 150% over AML.) So taking the NV managed HMAs into account, Utah only manages 2 herds of over 300 wild horses (and they consider both of those drastically over AML).

After 2026, there are no large herds left in Utah.

Piceance, CO

This article might seem like “just numbers.” 

But those numbers speak loudly to the urgency. 

If we cannot get BLM to perform the actual data-based analysis through Herd Management Area Plans (HMAP) originally intended under law to set science-based AML, boundary lines and habitat protection for wild horse and burro use, BLM will continue to push to drive wild horse and burro populations down below the numbers that existed when Congress passed a law as an emergency measure to stop wild horses and burros from disappearing from the landscape. 

BLM abandoned doing that planning in the 80s, shortly after the death of Velma Johnston. 

This article might seem like there is no hope.

There is hope.

There are still large herds in the U.S. There is also a chance some of these herds hit by the politics of public lands can still recover. Remember, wild horses are the symbol of the pioneer spirit, a resilient survivor, for a reason.

We will not stop fighting for justice. 

Through litigation we opened the door to gain actual management planning again.

Right now, we are in the courts pushing that doorway open further to gain the accountability originally envisioned. We must have science-based management that protects our wild horses and burros. We must stop the “management by agreement with permittee” model that the agency has relied on for decades trying to claim they use “the best available science.” 

We can beat this “Path Forward” agreement back. We can create a new path, one that leads to the protections the law originally envisioned and a recovery of our wild horses on our public lands.

We are working on an article discussing the issues that will be the focus of our welfare teams onsite at these operations.

The BLM has never created enforceable welfare rules. BLM created a program, after our relentless litigation forced them to. But in 2017, BLM completely abandoned finalizing the enforceable standards the program was to carry.

Please learn more and call your lawmakers HERE.

We need your support to keep our teams engaging lawmakers, our team fighting in the court, our team ready to run the roundup schedule.

Every mile we travel to cover roundups or assess a herd, every court case we bring, every win, every action we take is only possible because of your support.